The Tides of Change in the Private Market

The private market for company shares is experiencing a significant shift, with Anthropic and OpenAI at the forefront of this narrative. According to Glen Anderson, president of Rainmaker Securities, the prevailing logic of betting on both companies is giving way to a more nuanced approach, with investors increasingly favoring Anthropic over OpenAI.

Anthropic: The Unstoppable Force

Demand for Anthropic's shares has become almost insatiable, with buyers indicating they have $2 billion ready to deploy. This surge in demand can be attributed to the company's public standoff with the Department of Defense, which has amplified its story and made it more differentiated from OpenAI. As Anderson notes, "The app got more popular, people rallied around the company as kind of a hero, taking on big government."

OpenAI: The Challenger

OpenAI, on the other hand, is facing challenges in the secondary market. Despite its valuation of $765 billion, OpenAI shares are trading at a significant discount to its primary-round valuation of $852 billion. Anderson suggests that this is due to a lack of excitement around the company, with investors no longer seeing it as a must-have.

SpaceX: The Dark Horse

SpaceX, however, remains a bright spot in the private market, with shares consistently trading upwards. Anderson credits the company's disciplined pricing and conservative approach to fundraising for its success. With an imminent IPO on the horizon, SpaceX is set to test the market's appetite and potentially disrupt the plans of Anthropic and OpenAI.

The IPO Effect

As SpaceX prepares to go public, it's expected to soak up a significant amount of liquidity, leaving both Anthropic and OpenAI at a disadvantage. Anderson notes that "SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity, and there's only so much money out there allocated to IPOs." Whoever follows will face both more scrutiny and potentially less capital.

Conclusion

The private market for company shares is undergoing a significant shift, with Anthropic gaining momentum, OpenAI facing challenges, and SpaceX soaring. As the market responds to these developments, investors and companies alike will need to adapt to this new narrative. With the IPO of SpaceX on the horizon, the stakes are higher than ever, and the outcome will have far-reaching consequences for the industry.